Producers Guild of America Nominations
By Craig Kennedy - January 14th, 2008; 11:51 am
Alison reminds me that, in between rounds of golf, the PGA also gives out movie and TV awards…oh wait, that’s a different PGA. These are the ones who give out movie and TV awards in between rounds of sticking it to the talent.
Very interesting that The Diving Bell and the Butterfly keeps cropping up.
What does it all mean? I dont know.
Here are the theatrical motion picture nominations:
Producer of the Year
- The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
- Juno
- Michael Clayton
- No Country for Old Men
- There Will Be Blood
Producer of the Year – Animated
- Bee Movie
- Ratatouille
- The Simpsons Movie
Producer of the Year – Documentary
- Body Of War
- Hear And Now
- Pete Seeger: The Power Of Song
- Sicko
- White Light/Black Rain: The Destruction Of Hiroshima And Nagasaki
Filed under: Awards
Don’t any body shoot me now, but I am glad to see Juno here. I thought Into The Wild might get onto this list instead of Juno, but nope. Diving Bell is a formidable contender now. No Country seems unstoppable….Michael Clayton seems very likely to get a BP nomination….TWBB is also very close to being a lock for a BP nom too in my eyes. And no Atonement, who would have thunk it? I love the Guilds…the PGA noms have sure cheered me up :)
You’re safe here Nick (once you get through the spam filter), there will be no shooting.
Nick, Juno may transform Craig into Daniel Plainview but just be thankful he’s not calling you Eli Sunday. A point you’ll appreciate all the more in 2009 when the film is finally released in South Africa.
I’m sure Craig will pour you a big helping of Sunny D, Nick. He just had a rough break-up with Juno…
nick, i won’t shoot you/i’ve got more creative ways for you to die…. ;)
oh, i take back/going to get a gun….
‘no gossip,no box office,no B.S.,no shooting… ??’
“What does it all mean? I dont know.”
It’s alright. Nobody knows. This could be the Best Picture lineup, with one or two of these films replaced. Who knows?
There may be some big surprises come the morning of the nominations. I don’t know, sometimes I like surprises. Sometimes the familiar is much more comforting.
I’m not happy about this. AT ALL.
But after last night I’m fully cognizant of the fact that you have to take the good with the bad.
You can’t stop what’s coming. No way. No how – & not everyone will be pleased. Regardless of what’s been chosen.
But I’m hopeful that AMPAS’ final five is something I can live with.
We’ll know on the 22nd at any rate….
The lack of Atonement is extremely disappointing, Serena, but I’m wondering what other films you would prefer to see in the lineup.
I already know Diving Bell is one of the films you don’t want to see in the final lineup. :-)
I don’t mean to sound bitchy, but the PGA does not nominate films so that their list can be used to predict the Academy Awards lineup. These nominations represent a collective point of view of film producers. In that respect, I agree with the list. Each nominated film represents a success against odds. Cinematic achievement is a secondary factor.
Just for the sake of my own amusement, here are my Oscar nominees in order of likeliehood:
No Country for Old Men
Michael Clayton
There Will Be Blood
The Diving Bell and The Butterfly
Into the WIld
Pierre, in the respect that “these nominations represent a collective point of view of film producers”, how can you disagree with the list?
[wow, what was up with all the typos in this comment??]
Mmmm…
IF you put it that way, Pierre, then it does make sense.
Guys, No Country for Old Men is not going to win Best Picture at the Oscars. And There Will Be Blood is even less likely. Every year it comes down to a battle between a film like No Country and the everything’s ok/message film. The everything’s ok film wins every year, the only exception being when the Academy has ignored an artist to the point of lookinf ridiculous, hence The Departed winning (and that shouldn’t have won.)
A few examples off the top of my head:
Brokeback Mountain-Crash: Winner: Crash.
Pulp Fiction-Forrest Gump: Winner: Forrest Gump
Saving Private Ryan-Shakespeare in Love: Winner: Shakespeare in Love. (Though I personally wouldn’t go for either of these.)
Brace yourselves backlashers, Juno will win Best Picture this year, it has the Pulp Fiction newfound hype/unexpected success with audiences and critics thing combined with a story that old people actually like.
Could be better could be worse, but that’s how I see it, and, sorry, but no one seems to give a shit about Atonement.
Thanks:)
As much as I love Juno, I don’t think it woud be right if it WON Best Picture, I can’t even picture it as a BP winner, at all. I would settle for a BP nomination.
And I might add that by not giving a shit, I mean awards shit, not personal shit. I haven’t seen Atonement yet, though I hope to soon.
Pierre, I agree with your point. It’s likely the producers ARE nominating films that succeed against the odds. Craig, your list is interesting too but I think the PGA list is spot on except that I would expect to see Diving Bell or maybe Into the Wild or maybe (gulp) There Will Be Blood replaced by Juno. Yeah, there, I said it.
Chuck, ultimately I agree with you because your/my cynicism seems to be born out by previous years. Although, for the sake of argument, I think they were only discussing potential nominees, not winners.
My question to all of you: Does Juno have a better shot at more awards because it’s more associated with a popular new writer and there will be a weird undercurrent of solidarity with the WGA OR does that NOT bode well because Hollywood seems to be split over the effect of the strike? Remember, there are a lot of tradespeople in the AMPAS (and producers) who will/are being negatively affected by this strike.
Chuck. If the nominees are as I say, I think the winner will be Clayton.
Based on the last 3 years, the DGA has been the best predictor of Oscar Nominations. 14 out of 15 DGA nominees went on to get an Oscar nomination. Next is the PGA with 12 out of 15. Next is SAG with 11/15 and last is the WGA (because they pick 10 films) with 11/30.
With no DGA, Juno looks weak to me. It only has the weak WGA and the fairly strong PGA. All the other nominees on my list have at least 3 Guild nominations. I admit Diving Bell could be kicked out because it’s in French and so could Into the Wild, the most likely replacement being Juno in both cases.
I think the first 3 are solid for nominations but neither NCfOM or TWBB have a chance at actually winning.
Of course, 3 years means dick, but this is what one does of a late night when he can’t sleep or write.
I agree with you, Craig. If it is your lineup, the winner will be Clayton hands down, since it has a feel good ending and the bad guys get theirs. But hopefully the Coens will get their directing win finally.
If Juno wins I’ll be truly perplexed.
You guys have the numbers on your side, but my gut tells me Juno.
1. The Diablo Cody thing.
2. The well liked young director moving into his own thing.
3. The box office AND critics thing.
4. The story is of the skate consequences make you feel good and give yourself a hug variety, but it’s told in such a way as to please the young and the old. Edgy enough for the young, not too edgy for the old.
Screenplay is a LOCK, I think, for Cody, and that’s the category that’s normally reserved for the edgy movie that the Academy doesn’t have the balls to give best picture, except this year that movie is not too edgy. Essentially Juno combines the best elements (in terms of awards) of Pulp Fiction AND Forrest Gump.
As I’m thinking about this, Juno also has precedent on its side, the film, in its combination of the above factors, does bear a resemblance to a prior best picture winner….American Beauty.
btw, Pierre, you don’t sound bitchy at all. People are just getting excited because of the statistics.
As has been pointed out, the PGA is never 5/5 with the final Oscar BP nominees. :-)
I should’ve prefaced my bold statements with this one:
“I don’t know Jack Shit.”
I think I went to high school with him, but he was always in the cool crowd and we never talked.
Having said that, be prepared to put your money where your mouth is, or your honor where your typing fingers are, I’ll be opening up the Name Those Nominees contest very shortly.
Who did you go to high school with, Craig? Jack Shit? Or George Clooney? ;-)
Oh man, high school was bad enough without having to outshine The Cloon. That just wouldn’t be playing fair.
Chuck, I’d agree with you except:
The Academy rarely rewards relative newcomer directors or actors with Best Picture status. I think American Beauty is a rare exception. So was Kevin Costner in Dances with Wolves, but he was a well-liked and respect actor in the biz at the time.
The Academy rarely rewards comedies with Best Picture status. American Beauty was a drama. What was the last comedy to actually win? Anyone?
The Academy rarely rewards a movie with Best Picture status without any veteran actors in major roles. Who’s the veteran actor here? Janney? Simmons? Alias-girl? They’ve never even been considered for Oscars before.
Juno is has an excellent chance to be nominated but in my opinion, it has little chance of winning. The only way that will happen is if the other movies split a large percentage of votes. If Michael Clayton gets nominated, I doubt that will happen…unless Atonement and Clayton are duking out the conservative, blue hair votes and TWBB and No Country are duking out the auteur/artsy votes.
It’s all a crap shoot and I’d like to mention that I am also not familiar with Jack Shit. Heard he’s kind of a dick though.
Well…
He would be a dick with a name like that, joel. LOL
Chuck, I’m glad you clarified re Atonement. But I assumed that that’s what you meant all along. I personally give a good god damn about it (it will either be my #1 or #2 of 2007 at the end of the day – currently it’s the former) but, seeing as I’m not a member of any prestigious awards bodies at the present time, that means SFA.
As for all the speculation about the likely AMPAS nominees…
I think Atonement & TWBB are the most deserving winners of all the possible films that will get a crack at the BP Oscar. Atonement (despite some of the unconventionality running just below its surface) is a textbook case BP winner. But its chances are getting shakier by the moment. So I’m not even sure it’s going to make the cut. TWBB is a work of sheer brilliance. But it’s so powerfully divisive that I wonder if sufficient people will vote for it once it makes the final five.
Juno could score a nod but I can’t see it winning. I can all ready sense a backlash coming, which will hit even harder if it is nominated. If people embrace it as a feel good hit then it may go all the way. But, as good as it is, I think it’s a tad too trendy & skews a bit young for the Academy.
AMPAS doesn’t go for comedies often. They do pick a lot of dramas with comedic elements or vice versa(Terms Of Endearment, Forrest Gump, Shakespeare In Love, American Beauty) but you have to go all the way back to 77 for the last real comedy: Annie Hall.
I’m not sure about NCFOM. It certainly never seemed like a picture that AMPAS would embrace. Especially with several of the characters meeting their maker off screen…& that ending. But I think more members would go for it than TWBB. Unfortunately.
Though rules are made to be broken (& a ton of them have fallen by the wayside the last half dozen years or so), if Diving Bell makes it that’s the end of the line for it. Foreign films get into the BP category now & then. But they never win.
That leaves Into The Wild (a possible winner unless there’s a backlash against Sean Penn) & Michael Clayton (solid nominee with excellent acting plus the Clooney).
I think Craig is likely on to something. I think MC could take it to the top with very little effort.
Uh…What was this I heard about a contest? What do we win? LOL
“The Academy rarely rewards relative newcomer directors or actors with Best Picture status.”
Especially if there are directors who have been working for a long time and have yet to win (like the Coens, Lumet, Ridley, Burton).
No Country has as much support and buzz going for it as Juno, plus it stars a great veteran actor and two actors (who are younger but not newcomers) that have turned in more than one excellent performance this year. It’s almost a lock for a nom, but I’m not confident of its win. And as you point out, joel, if TWBB is nominated also there could be a vote split.
However, I would like to point out that on the flip side not everyone loved both movies. Sasha is clearly a huge fan of No Country but loathed TWBB. And Serena loved TWBB and was lukewarm at best about No Country. That’s only two people, but I just want to point out that the same people who like one of those films won’t necessarily like the other.
As for the conservative, blue hair votes – they won’t go to Michael Clayton or Into the Wild, since two of the most politically liberal (and outspoken about it) actors in Hollywood are involved with those films respectively. However, I could see those blue-haired conservatives falling hook, line and sinker for the pregnant girl who goes to have an abortion and changes her mind.
Just some thoughts. Like all of you, I don’t know Jack Shit. I went to a different high school than Craig.
All good points Joel. I think my ranting has something to do with the fact that I feel it’s impossible for a movie as simply good as No Country for Old Men or There Will Be Blood to win. But you make a good case.
For what it’s worth Chuck, my gut says the same thing. I’m forced to concede they’re a good bet for a nomination just because of all the guild nonsense, but I don’t see them winning. Me and Oscar don’t get along. We just don’t see eye to eye.
And that’s fine. Though I’m waste deep in the awards sewer, it’s important to point out it’s all a game. It changes my opinion of my favorite movies not a jot. It will either confirm or deny my dubious attitude about AMPAS and that’s about it.
If it gets people to see TWBB and NCfOM, so much the better.
Serena, sadly there will be no prizes beyond the gratification of having further evidence that you are brilliant.
I agree. The Academy has a long history of giving good movies acting awards and screenplay awards and leaving them high and dry in both the director and BP categories. I hope I am wrong, but it’s telling that Scorsese had to make one his most mainstream movies (and in a somewhat off-year for contenders) to win Best Picture/Director. I love the Departed but it definitely was a departure for him from his other shots at Oscar.
Anyway, I think Lewis is a lock for Best Actor and TWBB might get screenplay or cinematography, but otherwise it’s a long shot. Ditto for No Country.
Joel, I see Day-Lewis as a lock for a nom, not the win. Sorry to be a pessimist.
It’s hard to fathom Alison, but you might be right.
It really depends on how the voters warm up to a difficult movie. Will they see him as overacting as some have said?
Who do you like for the win? Clooney?
It’s hard to say until the nominees come out, Craig. Day-Lewis is so strong and gave such an excellent performance. He’s swept most of the critic awards (including the 2 major ones, NY and LA), plus the BFCA and GG. Based on that alone it seems that they couldn’t deny him.
I worry that there could be backlash against him though. Not only because they don’t like the movie. Perhaps people will be annoyed that he won so much and will want to give it to someone else. I’m expecting that he won’t win the SAG award this year. He’s already won that (for Gangs of NY) and I expect that they will want to vote for someone else. Paul Outlaw over at AD (who claims to be a member of SAG) has already expressed his disgust with the Depp vs. DDL fiasco (started by Poland, Wells and Tapley, then picked up by O’Neil – the famour four). He also said outright that who he votes for will depend on his pleasure or displeasure with the results of the PGA and the Oscar nominations. So there you have it – further proof that these decisions are based on politics at least as much as (if not more than) quality of work. That’s not to say that any of those nominees’ work wasn’t quality – my remark is more about the manner in which decisions are made.
Of course, last year, both Mirren and Whitaker pretty much took all of the precursors and still won the Oscars. There was no backlash. If AMPAS feels that the performance is so great that it’s undeniable, then it could happen.
Clooney COULD slip in there and win. He’s very popular. And both he and Depp are the favorites to upset. Poland, who has had Depp at #1 for months, moved him down to #3 now. He has DDL at #2 and Clooney at #1. He’s one of the few that does not see DDL as a frontrunner (and never will). Either he’s really prescient or he’s a real jerk. We’ll find out.
Once the nominees are announced, we’ll have a better idea of who is a likely win and who could be the likely upset. As you know, I’ve got my fingers crossed for a Viggo Mortensen nomination.
LMAO…
Would you care to put that in writing, Craig?
Sorry. I see you all ready did. But thank you, crab boy.
That’s magnificently sweet…
My current predictions:
Best Picture–No Country for Old Men probably wins, but I could see how Craig’s Michael Clayton scenario could play out, largely because of There Will Be Blood siphoning off votes from No Country, as it were.
Best Director–Even if their film doesn’t win Best Picture I think the Coens will take this.
Daniel Day-Lewis wins, though many will fear The Cloon, as he has been anointed here. Haha.
Best Actress–too tough to call, between Christie/Cotillard/Page. Could go to any one of these three, though I still think Christie has to be considered the frontrunner, but not by much. AMPAS usually loves young actresses; it’s an itch they succumb to with a fair amount of regularity. That seems to be a fading trend, though. Heck, I would’ve voted for that Little Miss Sunshine girl over Jennifer Hudson.
Best Supporting Actor–Bardem wins. Unless Bardem wins. Could be an upset, though, with Bardem winning. I just don’t see him losing to anyone despite the actual fierceness of the field.
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan vs. Cate Blanchett. AMPAS could go either way. For a while I was feeling no love for Blanchett but it seems to be bubbling up some. Tough call.
I’ve always been interested in the fact that AMPAS has failed to go for an actual comedy since Annie Hall in 1977. That was one reason why I thought last year that while Scorsese was sure to get his Best Director Oscar, Little Miss Sunshine was The Departed’s most poised-to-upset adversary.
Can’t wait for the Name Those Nominees, Craig.
Alexander, you’re really that certain about DDL? I’m not just looking at Clooney as a possible upset. Depp could be. Or someone else that so far people have further down on their lists.
That said, you’re very optimistic. I like that.
And I agree with you about No Country. It won’t win but the Coens will get Director. I hope. I’ll be very upset if they don’t win, even if it’s Schnabel who beats them.
I really do feel quite certain about Day-Lewis, though I can see why you’re pessimistic, too. Or perhaps just realistic?
I think that AMPAS recognizes that Day-Lewis is a one-of-a-kind actor who is more than deserving and, in a way, “due,” as well (they love people who are “due” and people who are “overdue”) since he lost for Gangs of New York to relative newcomer (in terms of being a big star) Adrien Brody. The Best Actor field is much stronger this year than last year, when Whitaker ruled as The Last King (his only threat was O’Toole winning since he’d never won… gag, I hate remembering that he’s never won!) but it’s not *that* much stronger.
Poland always makes these bizarre leaps in logic. He was saying over a year ago that Depp was “by far the frontrunner” for Sweeney Todd and he’s been pushing that ever since. He called Will Smith the 85% lock to win for The Pursuit of Happyness, for goodness sakes, and was in denial about Whitaker last year, too. (Calling it a glorified supporting turn. Which, in some ways it was, but facts are facts and Poland is so slow to adapt.)
Day-Lewis *is* the frontrunner. As you write, he’s won a bunch of precursors and despite SAG possibly not going for him I could see him winning there, too, though who knows? It really is Day-Lewis, Frontrunner, vs. Clooney, Movie Star. Depp isn’t winning for Sweeney Todd and there is nobody else who can stop Day-Lewis. Denzel Washington is likely to be nominated for American Gangster but he sure isn’t going to win. Mortensen being nominated (which I think will probably happen) doesn’t do much for the race, as that isn’t an “Oscar role” traditionally.
Ultimately, I think the voters will say, “Well, I love Clooney but we just awarded him a couple of years ago, and he’ll be back a lot sooner than Day-Lewis will be and there will be plenty of chances to award him when he isn’t facing such an unbelievable performance. Besides, Day-Lewis is a phenom and he hasn’t won in nearly twenty years.” And that will be that.
I don’t see much love for There Will Be Blood per se, but I think Day-Lewis has to be considered the frontrunner, especially since the Globes, who love movie stars, went with him over Clooney.
I still find it bizarre–and perhaps unsettling–that so many early critics awards groups went with Clooney. I personally think he gave a fantastic performance (easily his best to my mind, nothing else comes close) but Day-Lewis is just too great a force to deny.
I agree with the hypothesis posted above that great pictures are often sacrificed to the gods of AMPAS, frequently losing (if No Country wins it’ll be the first time my #1 and the AMPAS #1 have lined up since the 1994 ceremony) but I do think a case could be made that great acting turns are rewarded in more frequent intervals. This year, if it all pans out, on the male side, at least, you’ll have two great, iconic turns (Day-Lewis and Bardem) winning. I’m optimistic on this one.
You make very good points, Alexander. I have to admit that I still have not seen Sweeney Todd, so i couldn’t say whether I think Depp COULD win for that role. Some people say yes, others say no.
I think there is a lot of Clooney hate, though. If he does win, there will be a lot of pissing and moaning. Mark my words.
There is going to be a lot of pissing and moaning no matter what. There always is. God help poor Juno if she wins. The backlash will be enormous. And you won’t hear a bit of it from me….
Truth be told, I’m nowhere near ready to pick winners. Ask me again after the nominations. It’s just too confusing right now. Even nominations I’m unsure of.
I’m not sure of nominations either, Craig. There are certain people and films that seem likely, but everyone is expecting big surprises from the Academy this year.
After the nominations are announced…it will be even less clear, I suspect.
We are of a like mind, Alexander. I think the Academy (the biggest block of voters being the actors) is more likely to give Lewis his year as it were and give Clooney a BP. Michael Clayton seems a stretch for me as BP but it makes some sense. The Academy does tend to love to fall in line with the general consensus, as long as they don’t dislike the recipient (Eddie Murphy, I’m thinking of you). Further, Clooney just won a Supporting Oscar for Syriana so he’s been given his due, so to speak.
I have no idea where Actress will fall this year and I’m still trying to decide who is the best bet for Supporting acting awards, but Bardem and Ryan feel like strong choices.
I doubt any movie will sweep much of anything this year but I’d be likely to assume No Country has the best chance to take home the most awards, just not BP.
I think all the precursors to this point strongly indicate No Country and DDL as the ultimate winners. The best predictors are not always right, and one can endlessly speculate about different scenarios or explanations for them proving wrong. But the best predictors are the best, because, you know, they’re the best :-)
I personally give no weight to the MC wins scenario. The only film I believe can threaten No Country is Into the Wild. MC does not appear to me to have passionate support. I wonder whether the MC wins scenario is based in part on the established notion of Academy members being conservative and middle brow in their tastes. Don’t forget, the older members now increasingly comprise those darn radical baby boomers. Old Hollywood is falling away. And the winners across the guilds show no reluctance to celebrate work considered more difficult – No Country and TWbB. In fact, they are the most nominated films.
Alison, Paul Outlaw (if he is an Academy member) may vote strategically but he is one man. No one individual’s behavior can be confidently generalized to that across a much larger group. I may be naive. But I think at the end of the day Academy members are involved in the film industry because they have a passion about film. Such people, like critics and film buffs, are likely to have strong opinions about what they love and dislike. I’m less inclined to see strategy and politics playing much of a part – outside of exceptions such as the Brokeback controversy and people judged due as Marty was last year.
The weird thing is that even though the Academy is made up of a large group of individuals and there’s no evidence to support the conspiracy theory that they vote as some sort of a hive mind, there’s lots of circumstancial evidence that implies they do.
Weird, yeah. I just wish I could be at the AMPAS Secret Society meeting where they hash these things out every year. It’s got to be a hell of an event. I’m sure Charlton Heston has given Jack Nicholson a noogie at least once in their long history.
One thing is for sure: there will be quite a spirited discussion here the morning AFTER the awards are announced.
My only reason for picking MC over Into the Wild is guild support. MC has DGA and PGA. Into The Wild has DGA and SAG. Over the last three years (again small sample size, sue me) PGA has been a slightly better predictor of a nomination than SAG ensemble.
However, whether it’s Into the Wild or Michael Clayton or Juno or Selena’s beloved Atonement or Alison’s Diving Bell or a nominee yet to be named, I think one of them will prevail over No Country for the win…but again, ask me after the 22nd.
It’ll be interesting to see the Guild winners, though in the last 3 years, none of the movies that had the most big guild wins actually won the Oscar.
I’m with Joel. I do not believe in AMPAS hive mind conspiracy theories.
I’m not even convinced Crash was an anti-gay vote, despite what Ernest Borgnine supposedly said and even if it was, there was no groupthink behind it.
“I’m sure Charlton Heston has given Jack Nicholson a noogie at least once in their long history.”
ROFL, joel.
Craig, I love how now it’s “my Diving Bell”. :-)
As for Day-Lewis, he is the clear frontrunner. But everyone keeps bringing up 2002, when everyone was so sure that he or Jack Nicholson would win, and neither did. Of course, there is background to that story that not everyone is aware of, but try telling that to people.
Anyway, I hope that doesn’t happen again, because I think he deserves to be awarded for his work this year. I’m just saying that it could happen.
What’s funny is I still think Nicolas Cage in Adaptation and Michael Caine in The Quiet American both had them all (Brody, Day-Lewis and even Nicholson) beat.
*That* was a powerful Best Actor line-up. And there were many other candidates from that year that could have been selected as well.
Which is very similar to this year, Alexander. So many performances that are worthy of being nominated and worthy of a win as well this year.
Curious how some years there’s nothing much to speak of in a specific category for acting, the next year it’s overflowing with good performances.
I don’t see how Johnny Depp can win this year — hell, I don’t even think he’ll be nominated.
It’s hard to imagine any film beating NCfOM unless it’s Michael Clayton — and I hate myself even for saying that.
It’s DDL’s to lose. Christie may be the frontrunner, but Cotillard could surprise — I don’t care what they say, Christie’s role was not meaty enough, and the film was “too indie” — Boys Don’t Cry notwithstanding. I’m tending toward Amy Ryan and could even see Holbrook upsetting Bardem though that seems unlikely.