Terrific, terrific film!

Craig sent me a rule book months ago (titled, “Being Eloquent at LIC”) stressing that anyone who fails to be consistantly eloquent will have their ass kicked off the site. My using the word for the writing of others here is a wise investment for the prospects of their future as bloggers.

Craig that was a glorious incantation of the Kinks there!!! Right on!!!

K. Bowen: I will be seeing RACHEL at 7:00 P. M. tonite. Along with Craig’s favorable appraisal, yours intensifies th eexcitement.

Still, some of the things are just too crazy to be really scary, because they seem to unreal. Like the fact that a country (that would be Iceland) is basically bankrupt. Or that the national debt in the U.S. is now 10^13 dollars.

“I met her in a club down in old Soho
Where you drink champagne and it tastes just like Coca-cola,
C-o-l-a, Cola.
She walked up to me and she asked me to dance.
I asked her her name and in a dark brown voice she said Lola,
L-o-l-a, Lola. Lo-lo-lo-lo Lola (Montes).”

I tell you, that man ain’t natural. ; )

I know Alexander has pointed this out previously and Craig happily posed it in the text of the thread.

True banking and market reform can’t occur without proper regulation, but real regulation and reform from Congress likely won’t occur until we get lobbyists and special interests out of Washington and enact real campaign finance reform.

Congress has been systematically gutting the Depression-era regulation that kept the economy on a fairly consistent path for decades. Because of the energy crisis and the dismal effects of the Vietnam War, the Carter administration began deregulation but it increased exponentially during the Reagan administration, with the final nails put into the coffin during the Clinton administration, specifically Clinton’s second term.

All of this has been aggravated by the current administration, wholly bent on massive deficit spending and encouraging the populace to increase their personal credit burden with no concern for the long-term effects. Telling Americans to buy more to help the economy is like telling an alcoholic to drink more so that they can forget they’re an alcoholic.

As a nation, we’ve been happily digging this hole for a long time. It may take a while to construct a ladder tall enough to see the surface again, let alone get the country up the ladder and back to the light.

It is a bear market at this time, and that is an understatement. The major trend and supertrend cycles are down. Rallies will periodically occur–however, a rally from Dow 8000 or 8500 to 9500 or 9700 would merely manufacture a great selling opportunity. At this juncture, any hypothetical rally will only invite another hypothetical selling occurrence (a kind of non-commensal self-producing and -sustaining cycle).

The Dow-Jones Industrials yield approximately 3.77% (dividend yield), which is considerably below the historic mean: the U.S. is undeniably entering a painful slow-growth environment. Dividend growth will crawl, and be quite low–perhaps even negative–as some firms run into deficits. Consequently, yields will continually increase, going higher so that stocks can return a solidly decent return for the risk involved.

A 3.77% yield is very low. Historically, a 5% or 6% dividend yield on the Dow is not the least bit atypical. A yield of, say, 5% or 6% equate to a healthy Dow Industrial Average of somewhere in the ballpark of 5300-6400, significantly lower than the 8500.

In the long-term, the current crisis perpetuated by the federal government will involve a dramatic shorning of wealth for the American middle class. The preposterous level of debt of the American government, consumers and corporations is so vast it is truly impossible to pay back. The paramount avenue to be utilized will be fiat currency devaluation. The aggregate wealth of the middle class is today substantial, their actual but political options are laughably limited (McCain and Obama seem truly delusional and/or wholly unknowledgeable about much of anything relating to this mess–Republicrats, Democans, the majority of each side is abed with the Wall Street and banking power structure, any chance of genuine “reform” is kind of a joke). Middle class wealth will have to be reduced: currency devaluation is the preferred method, but some form of heavy taxation will be introduced, well after the election, of course. Meanwhile, 401k’s are being ravaged.

Temporarily, a widespread asset deflation and currency crisis will rock the economy, papered over (no pun intended) by drastic inflationary measures. Real estate values will drop to below 1998 levels in inflation-adjusted terms, since bubbles naturally conclude below where they began.

Fascinatingly, Arthur Burns, who was head of the Federal Reserve under Nixon, later told a local reporter in West Germany (where he served as ambassador for Reagan from 1981 to 1985), when asked, essentially, “How could you do what you did?” (i.e., utilize such obviously inflationary measures from his Fed chairmanship from 1970 to 1978) “Didn’t you know better, as an economist?” I believe the reporter asked Burns. Burns replied that the Fed chairman must do what the president wants–otherwise the institution would “lose its independence.” Truly Orwellian.

2004 was my first chance to ever vote, and I proudly wrote in the wonderful ticket of Jefferson-Madison. This year, perhaps Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck would be more appropriate.

Back to movies: Daniel G., we have all been there (I suspect). Well, not with The Happening, thank God, but with other movies of questionable merit. However, I always attempt to err on the side of tolerance and communication. In situations such as the one you describe, I would usually suggest the lady in question (a 1940 movie directed by Charles Vidor and starring Rita Hayworth and Glenn Ford, six years before Gilda, which saw the three reunited) see Day of the Triffids and a bunch of old Twilight Zone episodes (the original Rod Serling series). Or you could just throw up your hands and not cast pearls before swine, speaking figuratively of course.

I’m glad to hear you’re all over Lola Montes and Ashes of Time, Craig. As has been established countless times, you da man!

Scratch that… sounds a little like MEET DAVE for some reason.

Maybe Reverend Wright could’ve played the evil grass that attacks hoards of people. But remember: if there’s only a small group of you, you’ll be safe from any mention of eugenics. It’s the big groups that the grass doesn’t like.

So you see, in The Happening, nature isn’t killing mankind. It’s the liberals, led by Al Gore. And Barack Obama. Cause Obama is secretly a terrorist, and he’s turned the plants against us. With his insider ways. He’s inside the plants, he’s such an insider. That’s right, the terrorist plants are Barack Obama. And he’s rearing his ugly head over our land masses with the plants and his liberalist ways and ya know, that’s something we need to stop because it must be stopped, his head-rearing and the plants, ya know.

If only there were a maverick with a maverick team that could stop the plants. The Obama liberalist plants. Darn those plants.

Joel– not sure Sarah Palin would identify with the global-warming message in THE HAPPENING, but I’m sure she has her own mood-ring that might metaphorically come as a great emotional help if the world was ending.

Alexander– good to know I’m not the only one who thought EAGLE EYE was smarter than BODY OF LIES; we seem to be in the vast minority. Nonetheless, that the movie is barely-rotten on RT is something of a testament to its mediocrity given that so many critics would do anything they could to write a good review for Scott.

And for the AFI-Festers, just got back from the press screening of IT’S A GOOD DAY TO BE BLACK AND SEXY and despite the Sundance-buzz and Magnolia-acquisition, the thing seems Showtime-bound. Skip it.

What are they?

At the very least, probably means the Democrats will sweep the elections.

If you plan on retiring in the next couple of years and all your money is in the stock market, you’re not very smart and you should just send me all your money.

In the big picture though, we have to ask WHY the market is dropping despite every attempt by the government to stop it. Is it just fear and emotion or are there really problems with our economic fundamentals that will end up biting all of us on the ass?

My limited short term take is that as long as I keep my job (seems pretty solid for now) and inflation doesn’t go crazy, I’ll be ok.

Does that come close to answering your question?

Also, I’m not a financial expert nor do I play one on TV.

Who knows what movies she see, joel. Who knows what movies ANYbody sees in Alaska.

Does anybody know what’s happening in NY? I’m looking for someone to explain to me like a two year old if I should be worried that the stock market has basically crashed. I don’t own stock in any company, so what does this mean for me?

I know some smart people who have horrible taste in movies. The truth is, most people just don’t take them that seriously. I just try to avoid conversations about movies like 300 because there’s nothing to be gained from them. I just smile and wave.

I cringe in sympathy, Daniel. These people, they’re everywhere. They look like us and work with us, but they are so not us.

Laughingly, I said no. Something didn’t seem right with her reaction. I asked her if she had just seen The Happening, and she burst into unbridled, enthusiastic praise. I was speechless for about a minute before diplomatically explaining to her that she was talking about what has roundly been considered the worst movie of the year – number one with a bullet. She couldn’t believe it, said she loves all of his movies because they have a message.

At this point you really have to be careful how you act, so I just bit my tongue.

Then she closed our conversation by tossing in “10,000 BC is my favorite movie the year. I seriously watch it like every day.”