Two-Bit LiC Guild Nomination Analysis
I’m too lazy to look back past 2004, but since then there have been two best picture Oscar nominees that didn’t receive either a DGA or PGA nomination. The first was Letters From Iwo Jima which you may remember was a somewhat unexpected last-minute awards derby entry. The other was last year’s Atonement, a British production and overlooked by the American guilds (by rule or by prejudice, I’m not sure).
Since this year’s DGA and PGA nominations are a match, it’s getting harder to argue against Slumdog Millionaire, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Milk, Frost/Nixon and The Dark Knight as the eventual Oscar nominees. I don’t see anything that came along late that’s getting any attention of any kind nor any foreign productions.
Button and Slumdog have the further benefit of SAG ensemble love and a cinematographer nod. Dark Knight got cinematographer, but missed SAG ensemble. Milk and Frost/Nixon got SAG but missed ASC.
Anyone care to poke holes in my logic?
Your logic seems sound to me. It would appear we have our Best Director and Best Picture nominees, though there is always the chance for a surprise or two.
I’d go further to suggest Button and Slumdog are the favorites for the win with a slight edge to Slumdog just because it seems to be a more unanimous critical and crowd favorite.
Best Director I wouldn’t be surprised to see a curve thrown in there…like a token nomination for someone who was a near miss for the DGA, but I can’t see who that might be.
I too think your logic is sound. As well as that Slumdog is the current favourite, I think it most certainly is. I think Button will get tons of nominations, same as The Dark Knight, but Slumdog is our best bet to take home the major award I think.
Having seen most of the potential nominees, I am finding it much harder to separate what and who I want to win over what and who I think will. Last year was far easier.
I’m rooting for Button and against Nixon, but I won’t shed tears if Milk, Slumdog or TDK win.
please please please, oscars miss frost/nixon (thought, to be fair, i haven’t seen it, though i haven’t had the ‘necessary’ visit for another overrated Ron Howard effort to the multiplex because this is the ONLY entry that hasn’t filtered down to the “average american” multiplex) though they DO love the Ron Howard (unfortunately). I believe the heart of the indy right now is beating loudly for some WALL-E!!! the suspense builds
I will shed tears if Milk or Slumdog win, but they will be tears of joy.
(crickets chirping)
I’m just going to sit back and watch this one from here on out.
Matt K, do you work at Pixar by any chance?
Prepared to eat one of those crickets Joel? :)
Matt, as far as Howard goes, obviously you and I are on the same page, but I have to say it’s his best effort in years.
“…but I have to say it’s his best effort in years.”
He truly did return to the grandiloquent heights of blandly forgettable mediocrity.
Alexander, as director of human resources at Pixar, I hired Matt three weeks ago, and his job is in the PR department. I spoke with Andrew Stanton earlier this week, and we felt a new voice was needed to get our message across.
GO WALL-E!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hahaha.
Just because its one of Howard’s best efforts doesn’t mean it should rub shoulders with the best efforts of this year or any year.
Amen to that Nick, how true!
“He truly did return to the grandiloquent heights of blandly forgettable mediocrity.”
Hahah. You know, I don’t want to soften my Howard hating street cred, I’m just trying to look at all sides.
Also, Night Shift was not mediocre. Top shelf comedy.
Call me crazy – I still Gran Torino is going to sneak in for a nod…
Craig, I actually enjoyed Night Shift a lot. It was funny and Michael Keaton was awesome.
You may have something there Daniel. Remember, never underestimate the Clint.
Indeed, never. It’s easy to forget that since 2003 he’s been nominated for BOTH Best Picture and Best Director three times.
And Best Actor once!
I understand your inclination to see things from all sides, Craig. Haha.
Daniel. You’re crazy. Seriously, I will bet you a limb that Gran Torino doesn’t get a nom for BP. He might get in for Actor or Director though.
I absolutely agree you should never count Clint out, but it seems the guilds already have.
Alison: Yeah! (Humming riff to Jumpin’ Jack Flash)
Only if the limb is my left pinky toe. You’re on!
“(crickets chirping)”
I take it you’re breeding them for the bug eating ahead of you when Slumdog wins :-)
Like Matt K my prejudice against Ron Howard is sufficiently mean spirited that without even seeing Frost/Nixon I hope the film isn’t nominated.
If there is one director who won’t match up come Oscar time, it will be Ron Howard. However, the academy loves him.
Let’s remember that the race isn’t quite done, but as the calendar quickly makes its way towards the release of Oscar nominations, I don’t see the Best Picture race changing at all. I think Paramount Vantage really screwed up the distribution for Revolutionary Road. They had a potential hit on their hands, and they botched it.
PV has been off its game since they were folded back into Paramount. Plus they spent a crapload on Oscar campaigns last year for TWBB (and possibly also their part of NCfOM) which I think was one of the big things that caused them to crumble. The box office return just wasn’t there
The Critics Choice Awards are on. Anne Hathaway and Meryl Streep tied for Best Actress.
The BFCA is full of shit, but that’s a great pick.
Still, we’re talking about an organization that includes Ben Lyons and Dorothy Lucy…who, if you lived in LA, you’d want to murder.
Craig, you’re absolutely right. The BFCA is full of shit.
If they’re any indication of the Oscars this year, Slumdog Millionaire is going to take everything.
Slumdog has my money.
If these low rent awards have any impact at all (in my opinion), it’s simply because lazy Academy members may watch them and end up narrowing down the field of things they actually watch.
We should all just be glad that we have Ron Howard around to enrich our lives.
Who are you? Clint Howard in disguise?