LiC Picks the Oscars

32 Responses to “LiC Picks the Oscars”

1. Alexander Coleman - Feb 20 '09, 11:11 am

   I think you’re on solid ground with all of your predictions, Craig. Time Magazine better hope Kate Winslet wins, in any event.

   At first I was surprised that you’re rooting for Milk and Gus Van Sant in Picture and Director, but I do remember you explicitly fearing a backlash should the improbable happen and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button somehow win.

2. Daniel - Feb 20 '09, 11:32 am

   Well we share a surprising 18/24 from the picks I posted, differing in the tech categories (both sounds I gave to TDK), a short, supporting actress (Davis), score (Slumdog), and foreign language (The Class).

   So I don’t know if that means we’re both geniuses or if the winners are really as easy to predict this year as it seems. I’m guessing the former, obviously…

3. Craig Kennedy - Feb 20 '09, 11:51 am

   In some ways Milk has simply resonated with me longer than Button. I also think it has something important to say and says it in a mostly subtle way.

   Oscar or no (I’m going with No), Button’s fate as a trite Hollywood Gump-fest is sealed. That is a battle I lost.

   You’re probably right about the the sound categories Daniel, I’m probably over-estimating Slumdog enthusiasm. As for the shorts, those are pure guesses based on no experience or research.

4. Miranda Wilding - Feb 20 '09, 11:52 am

   Let’s hope you’re right about SEAN and KATE, Craig.

   If KATE and VIOLA don’t win, I’m gonna burn my house down…

5. Jeff McM - Feb 20 '09, 2:04 pm

   Good picks, Craig, the only place where I disagree is with Best Actor – I think and hope it’ll be Rourke.

6. Craig Kennedy - Feb 20 '09, 2:14 pm

   I think it might be Rourke too, and I’ll be ok with that. Same if Kate wins.

   Have we already had the Rourke vs. Penn argument? I can’t remember who I’ve argued this with and who I haven’t.

   Both guys were great, but Penn showed me something I hadn’t seen from him before. There was an openness and a vulnerability. To me it was a more transformative performance.

   Rourke delivered within the bounds of what I already expect of him. It didn’t feel like a stretch.

   Of course, by that standard I shouldn’t be rooting for Streep, but life is just so unfair isn’t it?

7. Alexander Coleman - Feb 20 '09, 2:45 pm

   Seeing both films twice, I would certainly go with Rourke. (I don’t think you and I have discussed this with one another, Craig.) Penn is quite good, and he’s been extravagantly praised for displaying sides of himself that he rarely has before, but I would argue that Rourke’s performance has been under-valued insofar as many have claimed it falls under what one expect from him.

   Part of it is the writing, too, which I think (warts and all) is ultimately stronger for Rourke than for Penn. The latter’s turn feels more amenable to Oscar, and seeing Milk a second time I was put off much more by some of the more manipulative elements of the screenplay. I don’t mean to punish Penn for his film’s faults, but it did occasionally put his performance in a different light.

   Penn’s interpretation of Harvey Milk is quite exceptional, however. It won’t be a travesty if he wins, but Rourke sort of blew me away, in spite of knowing what he’s capable of.

   I didn’t know you started to believe Rourke would win, Jeff. Last I remember you were hoping he could make a race out of it. I hope he wins, but Penn is in the film that most Academy members seemed to like more, judging by The Wrestler’s lack of nominations beyond he and Tomei.

8. Craig Kennedy - Feb 20 '09, 3:01 pm

   I’m still pissed off about 8 and I freely acknowledge it colors my feelings about Milk. I’m incapable of judging it dispassionately. On the other hand, I feel no passion for Rourke or Wrestler. Intellectually I can say it had fewer faults, but lately I’ve been more responsive to flawed films that move me.

   Even so, as with Kate, I won’t be disappointed when Rourke wins.

9. Maria - Feb 20 '09, 4:29 pm

   I just hope The Curious Case… won’t win. I thought it was an average movie.

10. Craig Kennedy - Feb 20 '09, 4:40 pm

    Thanks for stopping by, Maria.

    I don’t think you have to worry too much about Button. I predict it will hold some kind of record for most Oscar losses before the evening is through. Not sure what the official statistic in that regard is, but with 13 noms I think it will be lucky to pick up a couple of technical wins.

    My pick for “average” movie I don’t want to see winning is Frost/Nixon.

11. joel - Feb 20 '09, 5:09 pm

    Huh, weird, we’re like 19/24. I went with Rourke for Actor although I’m pulling for Penn, In Bruges for Screenplay (although I’m guessing it will be SM) and having TDK take SFX and one sound award and Iron Man the other. I will be shocked if SM wins any sound awards, but what do I know?

    Anyway, ironically I put the effort in and other than the acting awards, I don’t really care about the rest of the telecast. I hope it’s fun though.

12. sartre - Feb 20 '09, 5:55 pm

    I’m picking Rourke to win over Penn, but my personal vote would go to Penn even though I liked The Wrestler as a film more.

    But really, how does anyone fairly call one of these outstanding lead performances “better” than the others? I’d throw Leonardo into that mix too. Each actor did everything asked of him and more, and likely were better cast in their role than anyone else would have been.

    I know some don’t agree with such claims when it comes to Pitt, but not me.

    Bravo to them all, regardless of who wins on the night.

13. Craig Kennedy - Feb 20 '09, 6:13 pm

    It’s a strong field of actors. There are a couple of exceptions where I was less impressed than the consensus, but I’ve crapped on them enough in these pages so I won’t single them out again.

    There are only going to be small dramas for me Sunday unless there are some huge surprises…and I hope there are.

    I’ll be mad if WALL-E loses (though I never saw Bolt), but even if my favorite movie of the year loses, Man on Wire, I’ll be OK with it. It’s an unusually strong field of documentaries this year.

    Interestingly, I think the least deserving nominee is for one of my favorite movies: The Peter Gabriel song in WALL-E was the only part of that movie I didn’t much like.

    Even so, there are no real sore thumb nominees for me this year like there usually are.

14. Jeff McM - Feb 20 '09, 7:21 pm

    I just checked and the two losingest films at the Oscars are The Turning Point and The Color Purple, both 0 for 11 nominations.

15. Matthew Lucas - Feb 20 '09, 8:52 pm

    Hope Miranda has her matches ready.

    I think you’re pretty spot on with most of these. We differ on a few predictions (most notably the sound categories), but we agree on a lot.

    I think we’re going to get some surprises. I love how wide open some of the races seem this year.

16. Craig Kennedy - Feb 20 '09, 10:25 pm

    I’m praying for some surprises. It’ll make it fun, especially since I don’t have a strong rooting interest this year.

    0 for 11. That’s going to be hard to beat. If BB loses some of the early technical awards though…watch out.

    I’m not too confident in my sound picks. I guess I’m just riding the Slumdog Tidal Wave.

17. Matthew Lucas - Feb 20 '09, 11:45 pm

    I really don’t think BB will be completely shut out.

    I wasn’t too confident about the sound categories either. I fretted over them for a long time.

18. Pierre de Plume - Feb 21 '09, 12:12 am

    These are my predictions, Craig, as well as preferences. Please forgive my borrowing your format, but it was easier that way.

    (Special Note: I’d hate to see Miranda spend time in a Salvation Army shelter, so part of me wants Winslet and Davis to win.)

    Motion Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
    Rooting for: Slumdog

    Director: Danny Boyle
    Rooting for: Danny Boyle

    Actor: Mickey Rourke
    Rooting for: Penn and Rourke

    Actress: Kate Winslet
    Rooting for: Leo and Streep

    Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
    Rooting for: Heath Ledger

    Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz
    Rooting for: Cruz, Adams, Tomei

    Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millioniare – Simon Beaufoy
    Rooting for: Doubt – John Patrick Shanley

    Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black, Milk
    Rooting for: Frozen River – Courtney Hunt

    Animated Film: WALL-E
    Rooting for: WALL-E

    Foreign Language Film: Waltz with Bashir
    Rooting for: Waltz with Bashir

    Documentary: Man on Wire
    Rooting for: Man on Wire

    Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
    Rooting for: The Dark Knight and Benjamin Button

    Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    Rooting for: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

    Costume Design: The Duchess
    Rooting for: Revolutionary Road

    Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
    Rooting for: Slumdog Millionaire

    Make Up: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    Rooting for: Hellboy II

    Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
    Rooting for: Slumdog Millionaire

    Original Song: Slumdog Millionaire – “Jai Ho”
    Rooting for: No pick

    Animated Short: Presto
    Rooting for: Presto

    Live Action Short: Spielzeugland (Toyland)
    Rooting for: The Pig

    Documentary Short: The Conscience of Nhem En
    Rooting for: No pick

    Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
    Rooting for: Slumdog Millionaire

    Sound Mixing: Slumdog Millionaire
    Rooting for: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

    Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    Rooting for: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

19. joel - Feb 21 '09, 8:49 am

    Matthew, unless you’re aware that Slumdog Millionaire has been secretly eliminated from every category it’s nominated for, I don’t see how many of these races are “wide open.” There may be a few surprises, but I think that will only be because the Academy as a whole is going to be less enthusiastic about a sweeping Slumdog than the guilds and Globes.

    I think Best Supporting Actress offers the most interesting show this year. Otherwise, it’s down to the typical top 2 (or just Slumdog) in virtually every category.

    I pray for big surprises. I don’t expect much though. Fingers crossed.

20. Alexander Coleman - Feb 21 '09, 9:39 am

    The main differences I see between this year and last year are that one of the acting categories (Best Actor) is a two-man duel rather than a lock (while Best Supporting Actor is yet again nailed down and locked); Best Actress is yet again between two (Cotillard and Christie last year, with Page as an outside threat; this year, Winslet and Streep, with Hathaway as an outside threat); Best Supporting Actress is leaning more heavily towards one this year than last when it seemed like Ryan was the frontrunner and Swinton prevailed.

    Another difference this year is Original Screenplay is, for once, actually a contest and not a sleepishly predetermined category.

    I would contend that this year will most likely offer more drama, for drama’s sake, though like most I’m less interested in most of the potential winners (though for once I’m rooting for certain actors, like Ledger, Cruz and Rourke).

21. Michael W. - Feb 21 '09, 12:38 pm

    I don’t have time to get into this near as much as I’d like to, but to me, Sean Penn did a great job of playing Harvey Milk, but Rourke seemed to BECOME Randy the Ram. Possibly because his story as an actor so closely mirror’s Randy’s story in wrestling, but it just felt much more.. authentic, for a lack of a better word.

    Motion Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
    Rooting for: Slumdog

    Director: Danny Boyle
    Rooting for: Danny Boyle

    Actor: Mickey Rourke
    Rooting for: Rourke

    Actress: Kate Winslet
    Rooting for: Streep

    Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
    Rooting for: Really… anyone but Ledger (I think I’m just tired of the whole thing regarding Ledger, and I didn’t love TDK like most did)

    Supporting Actress: Viola Davis
    Rooting for: Tomei

    Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millioniare
    Rooting for: Slumdog

    Original Screenplay: Milk
    Rooting for: Wall-E

    Animated Film: WALL-E
    Rooting for: WALL-E (although I’d love to have seen The Girl Who Leapt Through Time or even Waltz with Bashir to get nominations)

    Foreign Language Film: Waltz with Bashir
    Rooting for: Waltz with Bashir

    Documentary: Man on Wire
    Rooting for: No opinion

    Cinematography: The Dark Knight
    Rooting for: Slumdog

    Art Direction: The Dark Knight
    Rooting for: The Dark Knight

    Costume Design: Curious Case
    Rooting for: Curious Case

    Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
    Rooting for: Slumdog Millionaire

    Make Up: The Dark Knight
    Rooting for: Hellboy II

    Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
    Rooting for: Slumdog Millionaire

    Original Song: Slumdog Millionaire – “Jai Ho”
    Rooting for: “Jai Ho”

    Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
    Rooting for: Slumdog Millionaire

    Sound Mixing: Slumdog Millionaire
    Rooting for: Wall-E

    Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    Rooting for: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

22. Matthew Lucas - Feb 21 '09, 2:48 pm

    Joel

    A) I seriously doubt “Slumdog” will win in every category it’s nominated for.

    B) I also like how, with the exception of Ledger, most of the acting categories could foreseeably go do different people. Usually at this point most of them are locked up. And there are quite a few tech categories that could swing several ways…not necessarily in Slumdog’s favor.

23. Sam Juliano - Feb 21 '09, 2:53 pm

    I have been hearing serious rumblings for a few days now that we are in for a MAJOR upset in one of the acting categories.

    It’s Best Supporting Actress, and they are now claiming that it’s even odds in Vegas for Cruz and upstart……

    Taraji P. Henson for “Benjamin Button”

    Wouldn’t that be a wonderful surprise?

    I am thinking about checking her off on my pool, so to put me in a position to gain! LOL!!! Truthfully, though, Ms. Henson gave a lovely performance.

24. Sam Juliano - Feb 21 '09, 2:56 pm

    Matthew, here’s what SLUMDOG will probably win:

    Best Picture
    Best Director
    Best Screenplay
    Best Cinematography
    Best Editing
    Best Song
    Best Musical Score
    Best Sound Mixing (possibly)

    so it’s 7 or 8, methinks.

25. Pierre de Plume - Feb 21 '09, 4:11 pm

    Although I don’t pore over the Vegas odds charts, my recollection is that they’re not all that accurate unless the outcome is pretty clear.

    While Henson could win — for sure — that’s not where my bet is going. It’s true that a win for her would, among other things, serve as a tip of the hat to Benjamin Button. But I don’t feel her character really dominates the film in a way that even a supporting performer needs to. There’s an emotional component to her recurring presence, of course, but it’s more of a sweet quality than anything else. Roles that evoke maternal love do win Oscars, of course, but there seems to be a clear difference between the Henson character and, say, Brenda Fricker in My Left Foot or Olympia Dukakis in Moonstruck.

    If I were to see an upset it would be Tomei rather than Davis. Adams may have her supporters, but because the main support within the Academy for that film is from the actors branch, I see Adams draining a few votes from Davis whereas Tomei’s chances are tied to growing popularity of her film and her costar.

    All said and done, I’m still going with Cruz. Those entering Oscar pools need to be careful this year when departing from consensus because so many races seem to be fairly predictable. Prediction contest winners will be determined in even fewer categories than usual.

26. Miranda Wilding - Feb 21 '09, 5:01 pm

    “Special Note: I’d hate to see Miranda spend time in a Salvation Army shelter, so part of me wants Winslet and Davis to win.”

    Hee hee.

    My darling Pierre, do I seem like the Salvation Army type?

    I’d probably sack out at the Sutton Place. There are also a couple of gorgeous hotels in the West End: the Sylvia and the Coast Plaza over by the Bay.

    There are a ton of people who would take me in if I didn’t want to do the luxury route. Principally my boy. But we’ve tried that arrangement…and I don’t think we’re quite ready for it full time at this juncture.

    I’m hotly passionate about my choices the way everyone is. I talk smack about burning my house down every year.

    But then the telecast ends. The tension subsides. Everything goes back to normal. The sun comes up the following morning…and the house and the TV remain intact somehow.

    I’d say that SLUMDOG is, for all intents and purposes, a sure thing. DANNY BOYLE is almost in that category and HEATH resides at that level too, I believe.

    Other than that, I wouldn’t venture a guess.

    There are some fairly tight races going on in the other acting categories. There’s usually one big shocker per ceremony.

    But where’s it gonna come from…?

27. Sam Juliano - Feb 21 '09, 5:38 pm

    Pierre, many good points, and certainly the ’smart’ money is still on Cruz.

    But last month Ms. Henson was wide-ly seen as the last-place finisher of teh five by a wide margin. The fact that she’s even being mentioned at this point as a possible winner, is what has amazed me to no end.

28. Pierre de Plume - Feb 22 '09, 8:44 am

    Well, Sam, as I recall this time last year, Tilda Swinton’s name wasn’t on the tip of most people’s tongues, either. Anything’s possible in this category. And they’re all excellent performances.

29. Pierre de Plume - Feb 22 '09, 8:49 am

    My darling Pierre, do I seem like the Salvation Army type?

    Mais non, cherie. My comparison seemed so incongruous that I simply couldn’t resist. The image of Miranda in a Salvation Army shelter is as ironic as that of Marlene Dietrich trekking into the desert sands of “Morocco” in her high heels.

30. Jeff McM - Feb 22 '09, 11:49 am

    I think it’s probably more in the realm of double-ironic.

31. sartre - Feb 22 '09, 2:36 pm

    My final 2 predictions:

    1. Slumdog sweeps every category, even those its not nominated in, sparking a riot and complete pandemonium at the event.
    2. After eating a bug for dismissing Slumdog’s BP chances Joel can’t stop himself consuming the little guys and keeps uttering ‘the blood is the life… and it shall be mine.’

32. Joel - Feb 22 '09, 5:25 pm

    If 1 happens, 2 is sure to follow.

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