Navy SEALS track Oscar and prepare to shoot it in the face

Up until now, it’s all been so much echoing in the chamber that is Oscar, but starting tomorrow (at what’ll seem like Zero Dark Thirty for those of us on the West Coast), news will start trickling in about about how the New York Film Critics Circle are laying down their picks for the best of 2012 and awards season will officially be on like Evonne Goolagong.

This week, Erik Anderson from the Awards Daily Forums joins Sasha Stone, Ryan Adams and me as we belly up to the bar and make our fearless predictions in Episode 10 of the Oscar Podcast. As always you can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes. If you’re like me and don’t use iTunes, you can use this RSS link to subscribe on whatever service you use.

For the record check out my own picks in the major categories after the jump…

New York Film Critics Circle

  • Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
  • Director: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
  • Actress: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
  • Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
  • Supporting Actress: Ann Hathaway, Les Miserables
  • Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
  • Screenplay: Lincoln
  • Foreign: Amour
  • Documentary: The Queen of Versailles

National Board of Review

  • Picture: Lincoln
  • Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
  • Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
  • Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
  • Supporting Actress: Sally Field, Lincoln
  • Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
  • Ensemble: Lincoln
  • Adapted Screenplay: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
  • Original Screenplay: Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
  • Documentary: Queen of Versailles
  • Foreign: Amour

Los Angeles Film Critics Association

  • Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
  • Director: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
  • Actress: Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
  • Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
  • Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
  • Supporting Actor: Jason Clarke, Zero Dark Thirty
  • Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty
  • Foreign: Amour
  • Documentary: Queen of Versailles




8 Responses to “Osar Podcast 10: Unleash the Awards Hounds! NYFCC, NBR, LAFCA”

  1. I will listen to this on Monday, though I need to do this before the NYFCC results start to trickle in. Then I will return here with my response. Your predictions are sound, and do reflect a growing perception that Bigelow’s film is turning into a huge critical hit in advance. I’m expecting a great film here for sure. I am disappointed that the groups no longer combine American and foreign, but this has been the routine now for quite some time. Your NBR choices in my perception are dead-on.

    I am not the biggest fan in the world of THE MASTER, but I see that film as the surprise with either NY, LA or both.

    As I say I’ll give this a listen tomorrow (Monday) before NY gets the ball rolling.

  2. Ugh. I sound terrible and stuffed up this week.

  3. I can certainly vouch for what Sasha says about NBR respect at Awards Daily. She has always given them fair and favorable coverage. Most interesting discussion on the byzantine balloting of the NYFCC, and the way to gage the likely possibilities by examining the individual reviews of the members at the compilation sites. Seems like Sasha had the headway to the big Rachel Weisz upset by suggesting the NY would probably go with a pick out of leftfield, though nobody here, not anyone on line called this huge surprise. Yet, I must say it was a very welcome surprise. I haven’t seen Riva, but to this point I’d be hard-pressed to name any actress over Weisz, and the magnificent, aching Davies film she stars in is one of the best films of the year! Certainly a +1 on that choice for the New Yorkers! Field was also a modest eye-opener, as most predictions (including the quartet here) were figuring on Hathaway, who is now rep[orted to have lost by the narrowest of margins. Congrats to Sasha and Craig for calling ZERO DARK THIRTY and Bigelow. Got a huge sustained laugh listening to the sex banter! Ha! Saha and Craig are now predicting LINCOLN for NBR after New York went with Bigelow’s film. Day-Lewis win in Gotham was seen here by everone, and he should be winning more over the coming weeks. I like Ryan’s idea that THE MASTER is the LA critics’ kind of film, based on a perusal of their prior picks, and concur with Sasha that they would love to stand apart from NYFCC. Excellent NBR top 10 picks by Sasha and Erik, both of which have LES MISERABLES, ARGO and LINCOLN as part of the equations.

    Great that you have shaken the cold now Craig.

  4. LA especially has a habit of making left field pics in the actress category. I’m not sure anyone really expected NY to go that route.

    Now that NY has come down in favor of Zero Dark Thirty, I must reconsider my own feelings on LA since they seem to like to go contrary to NY. They might go for hometown boy Paul Thomas Anderson and The Master this year. It will be interesting to see.

    I like the NBR Lincoln pick. I joked in the podcast that Doris Kearns Goodwin could conceivably be a voter, but in seriousness, I do imagine them being made up of academics like her. Something about this just feels like it’s their cup of tea and it seems like they have a history of favoring Spielberg a bit more than a lot of the snobbier critics groups.

  5. All this talk is getting me feeling that warm early awards-season buzz again. Yay.

    (so different from the late awards season snore)

    I can totally see LAFC going for PTA. And I agree re: NBR and Lincoln. Heck, they’ve even got the word National in their name.

  6. I heard NYFCC split the vote on Best Actress THREE TIMES in a tie between Chastain and Lawrence, so maybe it’s not surprising they went into left field on the fourth try.

    If true it plays into the narrative that Lawrence was the leading contender but Chastain is coming on strong. Is it remotely possible Best Actress could be a bit of horse race this year?

  7. Jennybee, I hope even a month from now we have no real idea how it’s going to go down. Either that or I want to see ZDT walking away with it.

    Joel, yeah that’s the narrative based on the interesting way NYFCC votes. It’s important to remember though that while they’ve been a pretty decent predictor of the eventual best picture winner in the last 10 years (6 out of 10), they’re about half that rate in the last 20 years and I’m not sure how well they do in the other categories.

    Still, this award could get voters to watch Deep Blue Sea when otherwise they might have skipped it because Music Box Films has ZERO money for any kind of campaign. Maybe Weisz will get a nomination now when before she wasn’t on anyone’s radar.

  8. I am loathe to read too much into the critics’ votes or selections, as I think their effect on the award races is minimal at best. But if the strong support for both women reflected in that protracted vote is any indication, then it’s possible Lawrence may not just walk away with this thing.

    It’s also possible I’m just holding on to glimmer of hope that awards season won’t be effectively over and decided by Christmas.

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