So, the Oscar nominations are going down tomorrow at the crack of dawn on the West Coast and these are my predictions. The only picks that are sort of out in left field are the #9 spot in Best Picture for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and even more so the #5 spot in Supporting Actor for Bill Nighy in same. A few people have predicted Marigold would make the Top 10, but I don’t think Nighy’s name has come up anywhere. I admit I’m probably out to lunch on this, but if I’m wrong no one will care and if I’m right I’ll look like an Oscar god.
I didn’t make picks for the short films because I really have no idea and would just be picking titles out of a hat.
I reserve the right to change my tune down the line, but right now I’m going to go ahead and predict Lincoln as your eventual Best Picture winner.
Picture
- Lincoln
- Argo
- Zero Dark Thirty
- Silver Linings Playbook
- Life of Pi
- Moonrise Kingdom
- Les Miserables
- Django Unchained
- The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
(I’m guessing there will be 9 nominations, but if there are 10…) - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Director
- Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
- Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
- Ben Affleck, Argo
- Ang Lee, Life of Pi
- Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Actor
- Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
- Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
- John Hawkes, The Sessions
- Denzel Washington, Flight
- Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Actress
- Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
- Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
- Naomi Watts, The Impossible
- Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Supporting Actor
- Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
- Alan Arkin, Argo
- Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
- Javier Bardem, Skyfall
- Bill Nighy, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Supporting Actress
- Sally Field, Lincoln
- Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
- Helen Hunt, The Sessions
- Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
- Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Original Screenplay
- Moonrise Kingdom
- Zero Dark Thirty
- Looper
- Flight
- Django Unchained
Adapted Screenplay
- Lincoln
- Silver Linings
- Argo
- Life of Pi
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
Animated
- Wreck-It Ralph
- Frankenweenie
- Brave
- ParaNorman
- The Rabbi’s Cat
Foreign Language Film
- The Intouchables
- Amour
- A Royal Affair
- No
- The Deep
Documentary
- The Gatekeepers
- How to Survive a Plague
- Bully
- The Invisible War
- Searching for Sugar Man
Editing
- Zero Dark Thirty
- Lincoln
- Argo
- Life of Pi
- Skyfall
Cinematography
- Skyfall
- Zero Dark Thirty
- Lincoln
- Life of Pi
- Django Unchained
Original Music
- Lincoln
- Life of Pi
- Zero Dark Thirty
- Cloud Atlas
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
Best Song
- Skyfall, Skyfall
- Suddenly, Les Miserables
- Pi’s Lullaby, Life of Pi
- Learn Me Right, Brave
- Who Did that to You?, Django Unchained
Art Direction
- Lincoln
- Anna Karenina
- Les Miserables
- The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
- Life of Pi
Costume Design
- Lincoln
- Anna Karenina
- Les Miserables
- The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
- Argo
Hair and Makeup
- Lincoln
- The Hobbit
- Cloud Atlas
Sound Mixing
- Skyfall
- The Dark Knight Rises
- Life of Pi
- The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
- Zero Dark Thirty
Sound Editing
- Skyfall
- The Dark Knight Rises
- Life of Pi
- The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
- Zero Dark Thirty
Visual Effects
- Life of Pi
- The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
- The Avengers
- The Dark Knight Rises
- Prometheus
Filed under: Predictions
I’ll be posting my predictions tonight, but these are pretty good, I think. I’m guessing they’ll go for AMOUR more than you think, since Sony Classics seems to have pushed it pretty hard in the last few weeks, a last-minute strategy that’s worked for them in the past.
Also, I think ARGO could be a possible LINCOLN spoiler for Best Picture. Don’t discount the fact that showbiz people like to back movies about the “industry,” especially movies that make them look awesome and heroic.
I would have to agree that ARGO is now a serious threat to LINCOLN for the Best Picture Oscar. As far as AMOUR this is another very good point. There is an excellent chance for one that Haneke will occupy the spot that many are saying will go to Tarantino or Hooper.
These are excellent predictions for sure, though I would probably say they won’t go with nine. I’m thinking seven or eight, max.
Yes Paul, I agree about Amour though I have a feeling it’s not going to have quite enough mustard on it to get a picture nom. MAYBE Emanuelle Riva, but I have a feeling, despite SPC’s best efforts, a lot of people will have heard it’s the sad “old people dying” movie and they won’t watch the screener.
Argo was my original pick for best picture for exactly that reason, it being an “industry” picture. But then I switched to Lincoln before switching to Zero Dark Thirty. Now I’m back at Lincoln but only because I can’t let go of the fact that, for me, it’s a more significant movie than Argo.
Would love to see Quvenzhane Wallis make it! These are my best pic nods, I think we only differ in Best Exotic Marigold Hotel:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Wildcards: Amour, Skyfall, The Impossible, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
So are you predicting there will only be 9 nominees as well, Dorothy?
Yeah, maybe even less for some reason but it’s just a gut feeling, nothing scientific ;)
I sort of wish they’d just go back to 10 nominees.
Any chance here for Eddie Redmayne to crack the Best Supporting Actor shortist?
“Empty Chairs, Empty Tables” was definitely one of the year’s most memorable moments.
Also, as much as I have praised LES MISERABLES, I certainly will concede that the song “Suddenly,” written exclusively for the film by the original composers Schonberg and Boublil, is very weak. I would expect lightening to strike again 25 years later in any case.
Happy New Year Dorothy!
Happy New Year, Sam!!! I’ll be seeing Les Mis in a couple of days. I hope I like it as much as you did!
If Redmayne and/or Barks make it in Sam, I think that could be a sign of the depth of enthusiasm for Les Mis, something as you know I’ve been skeptical of.