I have to admit my enthusiasm for this year’s race cooled when it became clear my pick for the best of the nominees had been swift-boated with an assist by a bunch of lefty crybabies with political axes to grind. The irony here is that Zero Dark Thirty made a stronger and more vivid case against torture than a half dozen other movies that were ever only seen by a handful of people.
So it goes. These are difficult times and people want to shut out reality and forget. Escapism has always been a strong component in the appeal of the movies so it’s really not so surprising that this will likely be the third year in a row where the voters pick not the best movie, but the best liked, least challenging movie that lets them believe everything will be ok in the end.
On the other hand, with the date changes in the voting process, this is potentially an unusual year. It’s already unusual that the current Oscar favorite failed to get its director a nomination. The point being, I won’t be surprised if weird shit goes down on Sunday night. I’m not sure if it’s just retrospective thinking, but this year feels more potentially up in the air than any in a while. I think the smart bet is still on Argo, but I don’t think I’d put money on it.
Check out my picks after the jump. Use them to influence your Oscar pools only at your own risk!
Picture: Argo
Directing: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Adapted Screenplay: Argo
Original Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Editing: Argo
Costume Design: Les Miserables
Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man
Foreign Language Film: Amour
Animated Feature: Brave
Makeup and Hairstyling: Les Miserables
Production Design: Life of Pi
Sound Editing: Life of Pi
Sound Mixing: Life of Pi
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Original Score: Argo
Original Song: “Skyfall”
Animated Short: Adam and Dog
Live Action Short: Curfew
Documentary Short: Inocente
Filed under: Predictions
Ebert is now leaning towards SLP winning BP, which seems unlikely at this point but he’s got newspapers to sell or something. I kid, because like you said, this is potentially a weird year but I have a feeling it will be fairly predictable otherwise. The only major award I have much uncertainty about is Best Director. You picked Russell, which seems reasonable, but I could see Spielberg getting in there as a consolation prize (although Lincoln getting two acting awards might negate the need for that).
Here’s to hoping that Seth MacFarlane makes up for it all by being incredibly funny, and it’s sad that I have to look forward to *that* because I find Seth MacFarlane fairly unfunny. But he can sing. Oscar loves singing hosts, as long as they’re not James Franco.
I’m bummed that Bigelow was snubbed in the director category. I’m also bummed that Joaquin Phoenix never really had a shot at best actor, because having seen all, but Lame Iz, I think he deserves it. On the brighter side, I’m absolutely fine with Daniel Day Lewis taking the well-deserved prize.
Sound and persuasive predictions Craig!
Though I must say I can’t see Russell winning ahead of the three I see as the favorites for Best Director: Spielberg, Lee and Haneke.
I have also called Riva, hence I applaud your choice there.
Yes, ARGO, Day-Lewis, Jones and Hathaway are the picks for me as well.
I am rooting for HENRY and THE PAPERMAN to win in the all-important ‘office pool’ categories, so I will probably differ with you there, though I honestly can’t see CURFEW winning on merit. Not that merit matters of course!
I like BRAVE quite a bit but am rooting for FRANKENWEENIE. In the pool I will go with WRECK IT RALPH.
I do see THE LIFE OF PI winning four or five as you do.
Nice work!
I think Lee may sneak by Russell for Director. Actually, SLP could surprisingly be shut out entirely on Sunday.
Off-topic:
Mr. Kennedy would you care to exchange blog links?
Hey, I’m a lefty (not a crybaby though) but I’m with you on the feeling about the whole Oscar race and I think Hollywood sometimes makes lousy choices about which pictures they think somehow make the ‘correct’ statement on politics or social justice or whatever, and why.
Anyway I think you’ve made some good predictions. Given that Argo has swept everything up before this I think it’s a given that it will get the BP Oscar. It’s been a while since there’s been a BP/Director winner split.
I feel like Director is a complete toss-up, Joel. I only picked Russell because it seems like this year the most “likable” and least challenging movies are rising to the top. Since Affleck can’t win Director, the other most widely beloved flick is Silver Linings. Outside of my bubble of movie friends, most people seem to love that movie. I don’t get it, but there you go. The main drawback is Russell’s history as a flagrant asshole, but he seems reformed and I think that just adds to his compelling narrative. Anyway, suffice it to say I’m rooting for ANY of the other four nominees.
I was also skeptical about McFarlane, I mostly can’t stand Family Guy or American Dad, but I have to admit he killed it with Emma Stone at the nominee announcement ceremony. I’ll give him the benefit of a doubt.
Jeanine, when I first saw The Master I thought it was Phoenix’s to lose and I still think he had the performance of the year, but his character is such a weird asshole and he’s kind of a nutball in real life, that I think it drives people away. That’s ok. I loved DDL too.
Sam, do you really think Riva is going to beat Lawrence? God I hope so. And I really like Lawrence. I just don’t like her movie all that much. As I said above about director, I’d rather have any of the other four win than Russell so here’s hoping I’m wrong.
I skipped the shorts this year for the first time in like 5 years so I’m just going on what other people said.
I think I liked Frankenweenie most of all, but I think the oldies will fall for Brave instead. I didn’t like Wreck It Ralph as much as the rest of the world, so I’m letting personal taste get in the way, otherwise I’d probably pick it.
Colin, I hope you’re right. And sure, I’ll add you to my blog roll.
Alison, I’m a lefty too, which makes it all the more appalling ZDT got wrongly torpedoed.
Thanks so much, Craig.
Well SLP got one, but Life of Pi cleaned up pretty well.